Nine month delay on Kirkuk referendum

The UN electoral assistance division for Iraq came up with this when I asked them about the delays for the Kirkuk referendum:

Baghdad, 15 December, 2007: UNAMI is pleased to note that there is generalagreement among the Presidency Council, with the concurrence of the PrimeMinister of Iraq and the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan RegionalGovernment (KRG), on the urgent need to initiate a process in order toaccelerate the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution.This process will place particular emphasis on, but not be limited to,issues relating to the Northern provinces of Iraq. In view of thetechnical and logistical difficulty of holding a referendum prior to 31December 2007, as mandated in the Constitution, and given thecorresponding need for a technical delay, it has been indicated to UNAMIthat the next best step would be to initiate, in January 2008, and withinsix months, a process of facilitating the implementation of the Articlewith technical assistance of the United Nations (UNAMI/Baghdad) to theauthorities involved, including the High Committee for Implementation ofArticle 140.

My response was:

So we can assume they'll take the maximum time of six months for preparations - so no Kirkuk referendum before 31st June 2008 - and it'll then take at least a month to get things going and probably three - so around 31st September as a probable referendum date. No later really because we spoke to Nechirvan Barzani about it and he was outraged (in a polite sort of way) when we suggested we were in for a full year's delay.

Kurdistan is Consumed by Development, not War

A piece from the New York Times on stability and investment in Kurdistan.  NCF's Iraq experts - in line with much current writing on the issue - have consistently flagged up the issue of Kirkuk and its long awaited referendum as the 'elephant' in the room of Kurdistan's remarkable development on the ground.


Pointing to Stability, Kurds in Iraq Lure Investors
By KIRK SEMPLE

ERBIL, Iraq — It is a measure of soaring Kurdish optimism that government officials here talk seriously about one day challenging Dubai as the Middle East’s main transportation and business hub.

The Kurdistan Regional Government is betting that it can, investing $325 million in a modern terminal at the Erbil International Airport to handle, officials hope, millions of passengers a year, and a three-mile runway that will be big enough for the new double-decker Airbus A380.

“We’re not saying Kurdistan is heaven,” said Herish Muharam, chairman of the Kurdish government’s Board of Investment. “But we’re telling investors that Kurdistan can be that heaven.”

As the rest of Iraq has plunged into a downward spiral, Kurdistan has enjoyed relative political stability and suffered limited violence, in part owing to a sectarian and political homogeneity lacking elsewhere in the country. The Kurdish region has enjoyed de facto autonomy since 1991, when the American military established a no-flight zone there, a status formalized by the new Iraqi Constitution. Although many Kurds would prefer to secede, Kurdistan, with a population of about 4.2 million, has its own army and virtually total control of its territory.

Kurdistan’s rising fortunes have been nowhere more apparent than in the wave of building and investment that has swept the region in the past four years. Iraqis and foreigners alike have poured in billions of dollars, defiantly wagering that the region will remain relatively peaceful, even as the rest of Iraq slips deeper into civil war.

Where explosions and bomb-scarred buildings have been a defining symbol elsewhere in Iraq, construction cranes are now a common feature on the Kurdish landscape, tugging hotels, shopping centers and office and housing complexes from the ground.

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