Well it seems we are not leaving Iraq yet if we can help it - we are going to leave troops in the one place where their presence will be most explosive - Kirkuk. How stupid can you get. The mess that is Kirkuk is largely Britain's fault because the UK has led the chorus of voices that demand we kick that can down the road rather than resolve it. Typical. Those chickens will come home to roost ere we go much farther.
President Obama has promised to get all combat troops (ie most of those still in the country) out of Iraq by August this year. But Thomas Ricks of Foreign Policy magazine has revealed that the top US military commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno, has asked Obama to keep a combat force in the north for longer than that.
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Showing posts with label Kirkuk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kirkuk. Show all posts
Friday, February 26, 2010
Friday, October 23, 2009
Elections dispute
The New York Times writes: The dispute over the election law centers first on the question of whether voters can cast their ballots for parties or individuals. Voting for individuals is preferable because it offers a more direct connection between politicians and their constituents and helps weaken ethnically based parties.
Staffod Clarry responds: Yes, but no individual is likely to be effective without group support. The corollary: individuals can be made ineffective by groups. Iraq is not there yet.
Iraq is a country deeply divided into groups and by groups (ethnic groups, sectarians groups, clans, tribes). In groups there is power to be constructive, or destructive. In individuals, without group support, there is limited opportunity to be constructive, or destructive.
The New York Times writes: The second, even more difficult issue, is who should be eligible to vote in Kirkuk. Mr. Hussein drove Kurds out of the region; Arabs now charge that the Kurdish regional government is flooding the city with Kurds to bolster its territorial claims.
Stafford Clarry writes: It is indeed rather amazing that this persistent specious argument has not yet been put to sleep. Facts say something else. Which residents have ancestral ties to the area whose families were forced to migrate? The corollary: which residents of Kirkuk have ancestral ties to some place else, but came to Kirkuk after others were forced to migrate in order to occupy their properties?
Staffod Clarry responds: Yes, but no individual is likely to be effective without group support. The corollary: individuals can be made ineffective by groups. Iraq is not there yet.
Iraq is a country deeply divided into groups and by groups (ethnic groups, sectarians groups, clans, tribes). In groups there is power to be constructive, or destructive. In individuals, without group support, there is limited opportunity to be constructive, or destructive.
The New York Times writes: The second, even more difficult issue, is who should be eligible to vote in Kirkuk. Mr. Hussein drove Kurds out of the region; Arabs now charge that the Kurdish regional government is flooding the city with Kurds to bolster its territorial claims.
Stafford Clarry writes: It is indeed rather amazing that this persistent specious argument has not yet been put to sleep. Facts say something else. Which residents have ancestral ties to the area whose families were forced to migrate? The corollary: which residents of Kirkuk have ancestral ties to some place else, but came to Kirkuk after others were forced to migrate in order to occupy their properties?
Friday, October 09, 2009
Big big trouble brewing - nasty VERY NASTY
Iraq is - potentially - heading for civil war. It is time to difuse the tension between the Kurds and the Central Government - IMMEDIATELY:
Kurdish officials are planning a January referendum on a controversial draft constitution for the region, despite protests that it flouts Iraqi law, could heighten tensions with Baghdad and even lead to a dictatorship. The proposed constitution, which was overwhelmingly approved by Iraqi Kurdistan’s parliament in June, gives sweeping powers to the presidency and declares disputed territories – including the oil-rich province of Kirkuk – part of the Kurdish region.
Before it can be placed on the statute book, the planned basic law needs to be ratified in a referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Kurdish officials are planning a January referendum on a controversial draft constitution for the region, despite protests that it flouts Iraqi law, could heighten tensions with Baghdad and even lead to a dictatorship. The proposed constitution, which was overwhelmingly approved by Iraqi Kurdistan’s parliament in June, gives sweeping powers to the presidency and declares disputed territories – including the oil-rich province of Kirkuk – part of the Kurdish region.
Before it can be placed on the statute book, the planned basic law needs to be ratified in a referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Tuesday, July 14, 2009
U.S. military boss urges Iraq to settle differences
The Americans are asking the Iraqis to stop arguing over Kirkuk. Can you believe it? When it is the Americans who have been keeping the pressure up to kick that can down the road. The USA has caused the Kirkuk problem along with the Brits by endlessly refusing to address it.Sunday, June 21, 2009
Death in Kirkuk
A suicide bomber killed 70 people on Saturday as they left a mosque, shortly after the prime minister urged Iraqis not to lose faith if a US military pull-back sparked more violence.This obscenity took place in Kirkuk. The problem with the Kirkuk issue is that all parties, the Kurds, The Iraq government, the USA and UK, want to kick this can down the road. Aws long as countries like Britain and America continue to push to stop the resolution of this issue, the more violence we willl see.
Monday, May 25, 2009
The Kurds sell out Kirkuk?
The question was always whether the Kurdish Regional Government would go for an "oil for soil" deal whereby they gave up the independant exploitation of their oil resources for an agreement that would allow the absorption of Kirkuk and other "disputed territories" into the KRG.
The vibes we get are that there will be no elections in Kirkuk this year and there will be no referendum on the status of Kirkuk over the next decade. So where are the thirty pieces of silver? Here they are:
Last week the tug-of war between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal government in Baghdad took a major twist when after years of heated tit-for-tat exchanges Baghdad finally agreed to allow Kurdish oil exports through the national pipeline and into international markets.
The vibes we get are that there will be no elections in Kirkuk this year and there will be no referendum on the status of Kirkuk over the next decade. So where are the thirty pieces of silver? Here they are:
Last week the tug-of war between the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) and the federal government in Baghdad took a major twist when after years of heated tit-for-tat exchanges Baghdad finally agreed to allow Kurdish oil exports through the national pipeline and into international markets.
Tuesday, May 05, 2009
Is Iraq ready to rule itself?
As the Obama Administration presses forward with its planned troop’s withdrawal from Iraq. It is understandable that there might be a sudden increase in violence and terrorist attacks during the transition period were full power will be officially handed over to the Iraqi forces. The US and Iraq have both tried to play down the vulnerable political condition that is still persistent throughout most of Iraq.
Iraq still has some major political issues which the Iraqi Central Government has continuously delayed in addressing or implementing any solutions, even those highlighted in the Iraqi Constitution Article 140.
The disputed territories of Kirkuk, which remains one of the volatile issues in Iraq is no closer to being resolved that it had been during the Saddam Hussein era. With deep ethnic division between the Iraqi Arabs/ Kurds and Turkoman, the future of Kirkuk remains bleak.
The growing tension between the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government is clearly apparent with the prospect of armed conflict between the two is becoming more likely.
The Iraqi Military and police forces do not seem ready to handle the responsibility of taking full control of their own security. A recent report from Basra highlights the real situation in Basra and other province, some good but more bad.
Iraq still has some major political issues which the Iraqi Central Government has continuously delayed in addressing or implementing any solutions, even those highlighted in the Iraqi Constitution Article 140.
The disputed territories of Kirkuk, which remains one of the volatile issues in Iraq is no closer to being resolved that it had been during the Saddam Hussein era. With deep ethnic division between the Iraqi Arabs/ Kurds and Turkoman, the future of Kirkuk remains bleak.
The growing tension between the Iraqi Central Government and the Kurdistan Regional Government is clearly apparent with the prospect of armed conflict between the two is becoming more likely.
The Iraqi Military and police forces do not seem ready to handle the responsibility of taking full control of their own security. A recent report from Basra highlights the real situation in Basra and other province, some good but more bad.
Sunday, March 29, 2009
Trashing democracy and deferring Kirkuk
Joost Hilterman of the Interntional Crisis Group is causing trouble again. He's the one who's been trying to kick the Kirkuk issue down the road for ten years. Now he's coming out with more rubbish, trashing democracy in Iraq. The danger with an organisation like the ICG is it's influential. They have caused trouble before, by backing vertical sovereignty over Haram es Sharif and thus setting back the Mid East Peace Process.
Wednesday, February 18, 2009
Kirkuk Troubles
Stafford writes that the Kurds are cetting closer to war over Kirkuk. We shouldn't push them too far. He says:
Some leaders in Baghdad struggle to move away from meeting their constitutional commitments, including federalization and the development of a national government that serves all the people all the time in every corner of the country.
There are rifts within and between each of the major groups. Developing democracy is hard and messy.
Some leaders in Baghdad struggle to move away from meeting their constitutional commitments, including federalization and the development of a national government that serves all the people all the time in every corner of the country.
There are rifts within and between each of the major groups. Developing democracy is hard and messy.
Friday, August 08, 2008
Divisive politics
Iraqi politicians have fallen flat on their faces, yet again. The Economist is concerned that "the politicians will again muff their chance to make a breakthrough towards a real accommodation between Iraq’s competing sects and groups." And they have, failing to pass a law to allow for sorely needed local elections.
Kirkuk is the issue crippling the process, and it shouldn't have gotten to this point. A referendum deciding the fate of the city should have happened long ago, as stipulated in the constitution. And then al-Maliki perhaps bombastically proposed an unrealistic bill to parliament, vetoed by Talabini. The rushing to pass a law before parliament recess in the last few weeks only seems to have exacerbate the Kirkuk problem.
The New York Times reports that "violence has declined in the city in the past year, but the drop masks deep mistrust between the city’s ethnic groups that exploded last week when a suicide bomber attacked a Kurdish demonstration and a mob of Kurds responded by attacking the nearby headquarters of the Turkmen political front. Turkmen guards fired on the crowd, and the day’s violence left 28 people dead and more than 200 wounded."
Kirkuk is historically Kurdish. And despite ethnic cleansing and Arabization under Saddam, it is still predominantly Kurdish. What the issue really represents is denial that Iraq is a fragmented and fragmenting nation. The Iraqi politicians need to stop obsessing about their nationalist project. In any case, delivering better local administration, which the provincial elections would have been a move towards, may be the only way to keep the central government effective.
Kirkuk is the issue crippling the process, and it shouldn't have gotten to this point. A referendum deciding the fate of the city should have happened long ago, as stipulated in the constitution. And then al-Maliki perhaps bombastically proposed an unrealistic bill to parliament, vetoed by Talabini. The rushing to pass a law before parliament recess in the last few weeks only seems to have exacerbate the Kirkuk problem.
The New York Times reports that "violence has declined in the city in the past year, but the drop masks deep mistrust between the city’s ethnic groups that exploded last week when a suicide bomber attacked a Kurdish demonstration and a mob of Kurds responded by attacking the nearby headquarters of the Turkmen political front. Turkmen guards fired on the crowd, and the day’s violence left 28 people dead and more than 200 wounded."
Kirkuk is historically Kurdish. And despite ethnic cleansing and Arabization under Saddam, it is still predominantly Kurdish. What the issue really represents is denial that Iraq is a fragmented and fragmenting nation. The Iraqi politicians need to stop obsessing about their nationalist project. In any case, delivering better local administration, which the provincial elections would have been a move towards, may be the only way to keep the central government effective.
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