Meeting KRG in London

Head of Foreign Relations tells British seminar of concerns about political crisis in Iraq

Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir the Head of the Department Foreign Relations had a packed schedule on his visit to the UK. He met FCO Minister Alistair Burt, participated in the FCO’s Future of the Middle East conference and spoke at a Next Century Foundation think tank seminar. He said that the Kurdistan Region is very worried about Prime Minister Al-Maliki’s maneouvres against other Iraqi politicians. 

A conference about Iraq and Kurdistan was organized by the NCF on Tuesday 17. The meeting was held at the new Kurdish Region Government representative office in London, with the presence of William, the Head of the KRG Department of Foreign Relations Minister Falah Mustafa Bakir, and the KRG High Representative to the UK Bayan Sami Adbul Rahman. Since the withdrawal of the US troops in December, worries have increased about the situation in the country, and especially in the Kurdistan region, whose minority was particularly targeted under the Saddam’s regime.
At the moment the situation in Iraq is especially problematic, with an escalation risk to a sectarian bloody conflict among the three main Sunnis, Shiite and Kurdish groups. The KRG Minister referred in particular to the “Hashemi case”: Iraq’s Vice President has been accused of running death squads assassinating Shiite government members and asked to face a trial, but at the moment the Sunni leader is hosted in the Kurdish region, under the protection of Barzani’s government. The case is a high-sensitive issue today, and Kurds are particularly concern for its consequences. During the meeting, KRG Minister Bakir stated that the first aim of his government is to reconcile the parts, avoiding a dangerous escalation of the issue, and that Kurds are willing to play a role as negotiators to facilitate the settlement of the dispute. The Kurdish authorities are especially worried about the possible use of this case as a pretext to discuss the post Saddam political structure of Iraq as a federalist state and its division of power.
Federalism is seen as the best solution for Iraq, and the respect of the Federalist Constitution is considered the key factor for the future of the country, and the only way for the Kurdish people to be part of an Iraqi state. The respect of the Constitution is important not only for the division of political power in the country, but also in sharing oil revenues and facing the dispute territories issues. In this sense, using at best its special autonomous status, the Kurdistan Region is becoming a quiet stable and secure area in an increasing hard nation. As illustrated during the meeting, security condition in Kurdistan are far better than in the rest of Iraq, and the reconstruction phase is greatly benefitting from this. Many states and foreign companies are attracted in Kurdistan, signing contracts for the exploitation of its oil resources and the construction of infrastructures destroyed during the war. Kurdish authorities are eager to build good relations with foreign countries: among them, special places are reserved to Turkey, Iran, the US, France, the UK, and some Arab states. The necessity to create a solid diversified economy goes along with foreign investments and the development of florid partnerships with these countries. External relations present also some challenges to the Kurdish government, with regards to two neighbouring countries as Iran and Syria. With its numerous Kurdish community, the developments of the Syrian struggle are particularly concerning the Arbil government, which is trying to help the divided Syrian Kurdish reality.
Many obstacles but also some relevant good steps are the balance sheet of the Kurdish experience in the post Saddam Iraq so far. As the KRG representatives in London highlighted, Kurdistan could become a positive element for both Iraq and the entire region, as an example of democracy, stability and development. 2012 will be a crucial year for its aspirations, and the first priority will be to take hard decisions to stabilize the fragile current Iraqi coalition, preventing a possible bloody collapse into a civil war.

Maliki will cling onto Power

Maliki and the Kurds are forging an allince which leaves the INA in opposition and leaves Allawi the option of becoming foreign minister and joining the game. Which will be interesting.

Iraqi leaders agree to roadmap for gov't row

Kuwait News Agency - 09 August, 2010Iraq Kurdistan Regional President Masoud Barzani and Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki have agreed to a roadmap for a way out of the row over a new Iraqi government. Speaking at a joint news conference with Al-Maliki, Barzani said they would begin soon consultations with Iraqi political blocs about such a roadmap.

Death of Kurdish journalist must be explained

Please find below Ranj's article on the murder of Sardasht Osman, the 23-year old student and journalist from Iraqi Kurdistan: http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/may/13/zardasht-osman-death-kurdistan

The KDP have a great deal to answer for in my view

Kurdish Minister in trouble

The problem remains that there is a perception that the Kurdish Regional Government is corrupt. Whether it is or is not is not the point. The point is that there are no mechanisms that enable transparency. Employing some maleable firm of American accountants is not the answer. Ranj sends this in:

Minister's secret £13 million: “An oil minister in Iraq quite clearly shouldn’t be making millions of pounds of profits secretly buying and selling shares on the London Stock Exchange in one of the oil companies he oversees,” said one industry source. “He should disclose what he knew about the chances of this firm striking oil and when.” >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Big big trouble brewing - nasty VERY NASTY

Iraq is - potentially - heading for civil war. It is time to difuse the tension between the Kurds and the Central Government - IMMEDIATELY:

Kurdish officials are planning a January referendum on a controversial draft constitution for the region, despite protests that it flouts Iraqi law, could heighten tensions with Baghdad and even lead to a dictatorship. The proposed constitution, which was overwhelmingly approved by Iraqi Kurdistan’s parliament in June, gives sweeping powers to the presidency and declares disputed territories – including the oil-rich province of Kirkuk – part of the Kurdish region.

Before it can be placed on the statute book, the planned basic law needs to be ratified in a referendum in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Iraqi Kurds seek change

The Kurds are getting rolling on a very tough election battle. The temptations to stuff ballots and the like will abound. They have pulled the invitation for the NCF to monitor the elections - which bodes ill. Still, the people are excited = the fight to win the ballot is on.

SULAIMANIYAH, Iraq – Kurdish candidates have begun campaigning for the first elections in four years in their semiautonomous territory in northern Iraq — and the kickoff heralds an unusually bitter campaign. The July 25 vote for a new 111-seat Kurdish National Assembly is expected to cast a spotlight on allegations of corruption and financial improprieties among the entrenched political parties who have held sway in this northern region for decades.

New York Times gets it wrong

This is a classic example of disinformation and / or poor reporting. For a start Bashika is on the plain - not in the mountains. The Hatba group led by Najaifi is a Baathist group, responsible for many dark deeds. On the other hand, the much persecuted Kurdish Yezidis and Christians of Basheika are predominantly Baathist in private but pro-Kurdish Regional Government in public - all of which makes this a complex tale. The Yezidis are pro-Baathist but anti-Islamist (they get persecuted by the Islamists). Yet the Baathists and Islamists are allied in Mosul. Confused? Well understandably. Now look at the kind of bull they write in the papers. I wish journalists would actually go to Iraq if they intend to write about Iraq. This guy has never even visited Basheika.

Tensions Stoked Between Iraqi Kurds and Sunnis

Iran is bombing the Kurds again

Iran goes and bombs the Kurds for a passtime - same for the Turks. No wonder nobody likes them. These are an eye for an eye people. With all this bloody retribution about there is no real opportunity to solve the underlying problems.

Iran shelled Kurdish rebel positions in a remote area of northern Iraq's largely autonomous Kurdistan region Saturday, a spokesman for the Kurdish Peshmerga border guards said....

Kurdish election date soon

At last we get a promise from Masoud Barzani of a date for the delayed Kurdish Parliament elections. It is looking like early July but we should know within a few days:

Kurdistan Region President Massud Barzani today April 27, 2009 announced that he would declare Kurdistan region elections day in the Kurdistan region parliament in the few coming days, PUKmedia correspondent reported.

The British and the Kurds

A UK Parliamentary delegation has been in Kurdistan ahead of the Kurdish Regional Parliament elections - due may 19th but likely to be substantially delayed - we'll see.

“It has been two steps forward but one step back for the Kurdistan Region in the last year. Links with Turkey have improved but relations with Baghdad have declined. Respect for the UK remains very high in Iraqi Kurdistan, thanks to our role in establishing the safe haven in 1991 and in what is commonly referred to as ‘liberation’ in 2003.

PRESIDENT MASOUD BARZANI AT CSIS

This comes in from Stafford: Kurdistan Region President Masoud Barzani gave a talk and answered questions at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a well-respected, bipartisan, premier thinktank in Washington DC. It was broadcast by C-SPAN (Cable-Satellite Public Affairs Network) and may be watched via the following link:

Click here: C-SPAN Capitol Hill, The White House and National Politics

Kurdistan's right of return

Stafford Clarry sends this comment:

Today, some 5 million displaced Iraqis attract less attention than 150,000 Georgians. Most displaced people are in desperate need of urgent and regular basic assistance - shelter, food, fuel, cooking utensils, health service, personal items, etc.
It is not for want of resources. Actually, there is a surplus. Those most responsible for their welfare have yet to provide the assistance Iraqi refugees and IDPs have urgently needed for months, even years.
In addition to inadequate shelter and food, and other basic living requirements, displaced children are growing up without adequate schooling which will adversely affect Iraq's future even further.

Divisive politics

Iraqi politicians have fallen flat on their faces, yet again. The Economist is concerned that "the politicians will again muff their chance to make a breakthrough towards a real accommodation between Iraq’s competing sects and groups." And they have, failing to pass a law to allow for sorely needed local elections.

Kirkuk is the issue crippling the process, and it shouldn't have gotten to this point. A referendum deciding the fate of the city should have happened long ago, as stipulated in the constitution. And then al-Maliki perhaps bombastically proposed an unrealistic bill to parliament, vetoed by Talabini. The rushing to pass a law before parliament recess in the last few weeks only seems to have exacerbate the Kirkuk problem.

The New York Times reports that "violence has declined in the city in the past year, but the drop masks deep mistrust between the city’s ethnic groups that exploded last week when a suicide bomber attacked a Kurdish demonstration and a mob of Kurds responded by attacking the nearby headquarters of the Turkmen political front. Turkmen guards fired on the crowd, and the day’s violence left 28 people dead and more than 200 wounded."

Kirkuk is historically Kurdish. And despite ethnic cleansing and Arabization under Saddam, it is still predominantly Kurdish. What the issue really represents is denial that Iraq is a fragmented and fragmenting nation. The Iraqi politicians need to stop obsessing about their nationalist project. In any case, delivering better local administration, which the provincial elections would have been a move towards, may be the only way to keep the central government effective.

The Turkish Incursion Over ? ? ?

So the blasted Turks are out - of part of the country at least. Stafford Clarry writes:

It's not over till it's over. And it won't be over until Turkey resolves its internal problem(s) with its own citizens.

Excerpt: "Mr. Gates said he was still confident that Turkish leaders understood the principal concerns of Bush administration officials: that the offensive could be prolonged, bloody and — ultimately — ineffective."

This is, obviously, an absolutely correct "duh" statement; it's a no-brainer. It would seem that most everyone but the Turkish military knows their offensive would be ineffective.

Let's look at the numbers - the "facts", according to Turkey. The Turkish military claimed that 3,000 to 5,000 PKK fighters were in Iraqi Kurdistan, figures that the international media regrettably used without corroboration.

During recent, rather extensive, military action, Turkey claims to have hit some 400 PKK targets. Now, after numerous artillery and air and ground attacks, the Turkish military claims fewer than 300 PKK casualties.

We can reasonably assume that Turkey exaggerates its figures. But even if the Turkish figures are taken at face value, we are looking at 6% to 10% effectiveness.

Obviously, the recent Turkish military incursion is not about effectiveness; it's about ineffectiveness.

The PKK has more options than the Turkish military. In the mountainous very rugged terrain along Iraq's borders with Turkey (and Iran) the PKK can move with impunity and easily fade into safe areas where the Turkish military cannot go. Simply, PKK fighters can move toward the border with Iran, and perhaps over the border into Iran. Then later, when the Turkish military withdraws, which it surely will, the PKK can return, regroup, and resume its violence against Turkey and/or against Iraqi Kurds. This is the no-brainer that too many have elected to overlook and ignore.

It has been said dozens of times that the solution to Turkey's PKK problem is not a military solution. This has been elaborated in numerous reports and essays readily available on the Internet and elsewhere. Well researched books are also readily available.

The solution is political, and economic, not military. And the solution cannot be found in Iraqi Kurdistan. The real solution is inside Turkey.

The latest news is that Turkish forces have withdrawn from Iraqi Kurdistan.
Excerpt: "The Turkish military issued a statement on its web page saying all Turkish troops had withdrawn from northern Iraq by Friday morning. It said the operation's objectives were achieved, and it claimed that most of the 300 Kurdish rebels operating in the border region had been, in its words, "deactivated."
"The statement also gave a detailed list of more than 400 logistical targets destroyed, including weapons depots and command bases belonging to the rebels."
What happened to the other 2,700 to 4,700 PKK fighters that Turkey claims to have been in Iraqi Kurdistan?

Kurdistan leader rules out major clashes in Baghdad

Stafford Clarry sends this item with the comment, "The following article offers clarifications on many important issues pertaining to Iraqi Kurdistan - within Iraq and with Turkey":

By Ahmad Al-Khaled, Staff writer
KUWAIT: Kurdish Regional Government [Kurdistan Region] President Masoud Barzani yesterday addressed the question of Kurdish independence saying, "As long as Iraq is abiding by the current constitution, we are bound by a united Iraq." "We are a major and important part of the government of Iraq and we are not in opposition. It is natural to have differences of opinion but on the core national and strategic issues, we are part of the state and have an understanding with the federal government," said Barzani of the sometimes at odds Kurdistan capital of Erbil and the federal capital Baghdad. "We will send a delegation to Baghdad to resolve the technical problems which have marred the relationship of late. We hope to reach a solution," he said at Kuwait's Bayan Palace yesterday.The problems are not grave. If they cannot be resolved, we have to search for other solutions. But all of them will be in the interests of Iraq," he added.

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Two Observations

1. The political process FAILED in Iraq - but not the democratic experiment. It was SUPREMELY succesful despite Western interference (e.g. with the Ninevah recount). Democracy was seized upon enthusiastically by the Iraqis and adopted for their own. It will be hard to row back on that process. Impossible really except by imposing a true dictator - another Saddam - and that would have to be done externally as the two main power blocks (Shiite and Kurd) have no interest in abandoning democracy.

2. At regional level Iraq now resembles Mediaeval Italy with city states (like Fallujah) and principalities (like the two Kurdistans). It will remain fragmented. War will be created if a new central authority wishes to restore central hegemony. Iraq is no longer truly just one country in the united sense but more a loose federation of mini-states bound together by a puppet overarching assembly. Does this contradict my first paragraph - maybe.

Nine month delay on Kirkuk referendum

The UN electoral assistance division for Iraq came up with this when I asked them about the delays for the Kirkuk referendum:

Baghdad, 15 December, 2007: UNAMI is pleased to note that there is generalagreement among the Presidency Council, with the concurrence of the PrimeMinister of Iraq and the Prime Minister of the Kurdistan RegionalGovernment (KRG), on the urgent need to initiate a process in order toaccelerate the implementation of Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution.This process will place particular emphasis on, but not be limited to,issues relating to the Northern provinces of Iraq. In view of thetechnical and logistical difficulty of holding a referendum prior to 31December 2007, as mandated in the Constitution, and given thecorresponding need for a technical delay, it has been indicated to UNAMIthat the next best step would be to initiate, in January 2008, and withinsix months, a process of facilitating the implementation of the Articlewith technical assistance of the United Nations (UNAMI/Baghdad) to theauthorities involved, including the High Committee for Implementation ofArticle 140.

My response was:

So we can assume they'll take the maximum time of six months for preparations - so no Kirkuk referendum before 31st June 2008 - and it'll then take at least a month to get things going and probably three - so around 31st September as a probable referendum date. No later really because we spoke to Nechirvan Barzani about it and he was outraged (in a polite sort of way) when we suggested we were in for a full year's delay.

The Cowardly Turks

The Turks are at it again. First it was shelling, then air strikes. Turkey does as much to destabilise Iraq as anyone.

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Jane's circulation - Turkey dominates

Jane's latest circulation follows:

Turkey continues to dominate the news of Iraq, in addition to the more recent focus on the activities of private security firms in Iraq. It has been reported that the general Iraqi populace loathe these mercenaries, but have been powerless to do anything through their elected representatives, because of the powerful American immunity these men enjoy. However, too many innocent Iraqis have died through the actions of the private security firms, and the Iraqis now intend to revoke the protection under which they operate.

As the British Defence Minister meets the Iraqi Prime Minister, the leader of the American Armed Forces, Gen. Petraeus, announces positively that troop losses are being significantly reduced as they gain a stronger hold over the security situation. This announcement is complemented by the news that the Americans are slowly handing over control of certain Iraqi Provinces to the Iraqis themselves. In line with this, it has been announced that the Germans have been awarded a contract to train the Iraqi military.

The fierce concentration on the security situation by everyone in Iraq ignores the fragile state of Iraq's infrastructure. In August The Independent printed an article on the extremely precarious nature of the dam in Mosul. This has now been confirmed by the Iraqis, and is a problem that urgently needs assessment, to prevent what could be a catastrohpic disaster.

Iraqi Kurds key to ending PKK crisis
Agence France Presse

Iraq’s Kurds, not Baghdad, hold the key to defusing the crisis over the Kurdish armed revolt against Turkey as the two states try to find a formula to avert a military strike, analysts and MPs said. A high-level delegation from Baghdad yesterday held talks with Turkish leaders to prevent a military incursion into Iraq, but analysts said an active role was needed from Iraqi Kurdish leaders...

To see the full text please click on this link

Trilateral agreement signed for training of Iraqi military in UAE
Khaleej Times

The UAE, Iraq and Germany signed a trilateral agreement yesterday for continuation of the training of Iraqi military in the UAE by Bundeswehr, the German armed forces.The agreement was signed at the Armed Forces Officers’ Club in the capital, by Brig-Gen. Mohammad Ali Al Jabri of the UAE Armed Forces, Maj-Gen. Qassim Hussain Al Ali of Iraqi Ministry of Defence, and Col. Ingbert I. Herzog of the German Ministry of Defence...

To see the full text please click on this link

Defence secretary meets Iraq PM
BBC

Defence Secretary Des Browne has met the Iraqi prime minister Nouri Maliki during a visit to Baghdad. He is also planning to meet the Iraqi foreign minister, as well as coalition and Iraqi army officers. He visited Basra on Wednesday when Iraq announced its forces will take control of Basra province in December...

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Iraq to End Contractor Immunity
BBC

The Iraqi government has approved a draft law revoking the immunity from prosecution private security contractors enjoy under Iraqi law. The law, which has been referred to parliament, would revoke an order set up after the US-led invasion in 2003...

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Iraqi dam burst 'would drown 500,000'
The Independent

A catastrophic failure of the largest dam in Iraq would send a wave 65ft high hurtling down the valley of the river Tigris, killing up to 500,000 people, US engineers warned yesterday.

The dam, which is near Mosul in the north of the country, was built in 1984 on a bed of water-soluble rock and is in imminent danger of collapse. "In terms of the internal erosion potential of the foundation, Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world," said a report by the US Army Corps of Engineers. "If a small problem [at] Mosul dam occurs, failure is likely." The collapse of the two-mile long, earth-filled dam would release eight billion cubic metres of water in the lake behind it in a giant wave which would flood Mosul – a city of 1.7 million people 20 miles downstream – to a depth of 60ft...

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Gen Petraeus: Al-Qa'eda threat in Iraq reduced
Daily Telegraph

America is expected to confirm on Thursday that troop losses in Iraq have dropped to an 18-month low, as its surge of forces resulted in dramatic security gains in cities and provinces once deemed lost to al-Qa'eda.

Iraqis to take control of Basra province
Allan Mallinson: PM's foreign evasion is highly dangerous

The military death toll for October stood at 33 yesterday, averaging out to just over one per day or less than one third the rate recorded in June. It is the lowest figure since March 2006...

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NCF Iraq circulation

This is our Jane's Iraq circulation today:

This week the news from Iraq is dominated by the Turkish threats to invade northern Iraq, in their fight with the PKK. A Daily Telegraph editorial argues, however, that the PKK may find that their Iraqi cousins are unsupportive and uninterested in their struggle. Across the board, is the belief that the Turkish military are not only threatening to invade Iraqi Kurdistan, but have actually already moved across the border.
Meanwhile, other countires in the Middle East are becoming increasingly jittery at the unstable situation in Iraq, and there have been calls to support the weak Iraqi government, to avoid security fallout elsewhere.

Gulf security chiefs warn of regional risks
Agence France Presse

Security chiefs of the pro-Western Gulf Arab states kicked off a meeting in Kuwait on Monday by warning of the risks of fallout from regional events especially in Iraq.

To see the full article please click on this link
Iraq's neighbours pledge to help fight insurgency
Agence France Presse

Interior ministers of countries neighbouring Iraq said Tuesday that failing to fully support the war-ravaged nation would strengthen militant groups intent on destabilising the region.

To see the full article please click on this link

Turkish anger at Europe over PKK
BBC

Turkey's PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan has criticised EU nations for not doing more to tackle activists from the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). He said EU nations were not arresting or extraditing PKK members.

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Why Iraqi Kurds could oppose Turkish kin
Daily Telegraph

Jalal Talabani is a large man who moves very slowly, but it would be a mistake to think him clumsy. There has always been something calculating about the Kurdish rebel leader who rose to the presidency of Iraq, so no one should be surprised if the current problems on Iraq's border with Turkey are exploited as a stepping stone to his ultimate goal — an independent Kurdistan.

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Turkish troops already inside Iraq
Daily Telegraph

World leaders may have spent all week urging restraint — but the reality is that Turkish troops are already well inside Iraq.
The Daily Telegraph yesterday witnessed Turkey's military presence, including tanks, 12 miles inside Kurdish northern Iraq.
The patrol, however, was not the advanced guard of an invasion. The Turkish army has been deployed here for more than 10 years, manning four large bases built on hilltops with commanding views.

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