Wednesday, March 17, 2010

The New Iraq

Our reading is that it's neck and neck between Allawi and Malaki with a near equal number of seats each so far but that currently ALLAWI HAS THE EDGE to our surprise by about 10,000 votes and a better spread of votes across the country. This is part of a pattern with less sectarian voting (this time you have some Shiites voting for Sunnis and vice versa). Note also that Allawi is doing unexpectedly well in Kirkuk and the Kurds are stunned.

And then the blocs have this private agreement that he who garners the most seats gets to have attempt number one at forming the government. Meanwhile Malaki and Allawi's followers are negotiating furiously and want their leaders to do a deal in which one becomes President and one Prime Minister. But they won't - which means that they both want to be Prime Minister. The Kurds want to retain the Presidency of course and if there is no Malaki-Allawi deal, they will.

Note also that there is fury from the camps of Ayad Jamalhadin and Mithal Aloosi, the two anti-Iranian lists. They believe their vote to have been tampered with. To be fair however, all small parties have done very very badly - even Tawafuk and the Unity of Iraq Alliance. The people of Iraq have been voting for the big lists this time, i.e.:
  1. The Kurds
  2. Allawi
  3. Malaki
  4. The INA (predominantly Saderist)

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