Monday, January 14, 2008

Two Observations

1. The political process FAILED in Iraq - but not the democratic experiment. It was SUPREMELY succesful despite Western interference (e.g. with the Ninevah recount). Democracy was seized upon enthusiastically by the Iraqis and adopted for their own. It will be hard to row back on that process. Impossible really except by imposing a true dictator - another Saddam - and that would have to be done externally as the two main power blocks (Shiite and Kurd) have no interest in abandoning democracy.

2. At regional level Iraq now resembles Mediaeval Italy with city states (like Fallujah) and principalities (like the two Kurdistans). It will remain fragmented. War will be created if a new central authority wishes to restore central hegemony. Iraq is no longer truly just one country in the united sense but more a loose federation of mini-states bound together by a puppet overarching assembly. Does this contradict my first paragraph - maybe.

No comments: