Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Kurdistan exit strategy?

A friend in Arbil writes:

The continuing US and British Governments’ stance on a unified Iraq are untenable. In the field there is a knowledge that:

    1. The US are leading the entire adventure in the South, Centre and North. Their money, and troops, in the region would be a monster fillip for the KRG.
    2. The US Government might make a pre-election decision to recognise (and take the credit for) the stability in the region. This would be the most valid statement made and recognise the results behind the covert and overt support given to the region since 1991 (or was it earlier?)
    3. If the US government do anything to endorse or recognise Kurdistan (ignoring who they will upset in the process) the US commercial sector will rush in (whether in support of troops or the oil companies). This would significantly upset the balance between private market economy sector activity in the the Kurdish region and the rest of Iraq, and merely exaggerate the coalition’s disaster in Iraq.
    4. Items 2 and 3 appear to be mutually exclusive and I imagine that Washington’s brains will be focused on resolving this conundrum.

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